Dakota Watson and Anthony Smith are bond portfolio managers for Northern Capital Investment Advisors,
which is based in the U.S. Northern Capital has $2,000 million under management, with S950 million of that in
the bond market. Northern Capital's clients are primarily institutional investors such as insurance companies,
foundations, and endowments. Because most clients insist on a margin over the relevant bond benchmark,
Watson and Smith actively manage their bond portfolios, while at the same time trying to minimize tracking
error.
One of the funds that Northern Capital offers invests in emerging market bonds. An excerpt from its prospectus
reveals the following fund objectives and strategies:
“The fund generates a return by constructing a portfolio using all major fixed-income sectors within the Asian
region (except Japan) with a bias towards non-government bonds. The fund makes opportunistic investments
in both investment grade and high yield bonds. Northern Capital analysts seek those bond issues that are
expected to outperform U.S. bonds with similar credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk-Value is added by
finding those bonds that have been overlooked by other developed world bond funds. The fund favors nondollar, local currency denominated securities to avoid the default risk associated with a lack of hard currency on
the part of issuer."
Although Northern Capital does examine the availability of excess returns in foreign markets by investing
outside the index in these markets, most of its strategies focus on U.S. bonds and spread analysis of them.
Discussing the analysis of spreads in the U.S. bond market, Watson comments on the usefulness of the option
adjusted spread and the swap spread and makes the following statements:
Statement 1: Due to changes in the structure of the primary bond market in the U.S., the option adjusted
spread is increasingly valuable for analyzing the attractiveness of bond investments.
Statement 2: The advantage of the swap spread framework is that investors can compare the relative
attractiveness of fixed-rate and floating-rate bond markets.
Watson's view of the U.S. economy is decidedly bearish. She is concerned that the recent withdrawal of liquidity
from the U.S. financial system will result in a U.S. recession, possibly even a depression. She forecasts that
interest rates in the U.S. will continue to fall as the demand for loanable funds declines with the lack of business
investment. Meanwhile, she believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep short-term rates low in
order to stimulate the economy. Although she sees the level of yields declining, she believes that the spread on
risky securities will increase due to the decline in business prospects. She therefore has reallocated her bond
portfolio away from high-yield bonds and towards investment grade bonds.
Smith is less decided about the economy. However, his trading strategy has been quite successful in the past.
As an example of his strategy, he recently sold a 20-year AA-rated $50,000 Mahan Corporation bond with a
7.75% coupon that he had purchased at par. With the proceeds, he then bought a newly issued A-rated Quincy
Corporation bond that offered an 8.25% coupon. By swapping the first bond for the second bond, he enhanced
his annual income, which he considers quite favorable given the declining yields in the market.
Watson has become quite interested in the mortgage market. With the anticipated decline in interest rates, she
expects that the yields on mortgages will decline. As a result, she has reallocated the portion of Northern
Capital's bond portfolio dedicated to mortgages. She has shifted the holdings from 8.50% coupon mortgages to
7.75% coupon mortgages, reasoning that if interest rates do drop, the lower coupon mortgages will rise in price
more than the higher coupon mortgages. She identifies this trade as a structure trade.
Smith is examining the liquidity of three bonds. Their characteristics are listed in the table below:
Which of the following best describes the relative value analysis used in the Northern Capita! Emerging market
Daniel Castillo and Ramon Diaz are chief investment officers at Advanced Advisors (AA), a boutique fixedincome firm based in the United States. AA employs numerous quantitative models to invest in both domestic
and international securities.
During the week, Castillo and Diaz consult with one of their investors, Sally Michaels. Michaels currently holds a
$10,000,000 fixed-income position that is selling at par. The maturity is 20 years, and the coupon rate of 7% is
paid semiannually. Her coupons can be reinvested at 8%. Castillo is looking at various interest rate change
scenarios, and one such scenario is where the interest rate on the bonds immediately changes to 8%.
Diaz is considering using a repurchase agreement to leverage Michaels's portfolio. Michaels is concerned,
however, with not understanding the factors that impact the interest rate, or repo rate, used in her strategy. In
response, Castillo explains the factors that affect the repo rate and makes the following statements:
1. "The repo rate is directly related to the maturity of the repo, inversely related to the quality of the collateral,
and directly related to the maturity of the collateral. U.S. Treasury bills are often purchased by Treasury dealers
using repo transactions, and since they have high liquidity, short maturities, and no default risk, the repo rate is
usually quite low. "
2. "The greater control the lender has over the collateral, the lower the repo rate. If the availability of the
collateral is limited, the repo rate will be higher."
Castillo consults with an institutional investor, the Washington Investment Fund, on the effect of leverage on
bond portfolio returns as well as their bond portfolio's sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The portfolio under
discussion is well diversified, with small positions in a large number of bonds. It has a duration of 7.2. Of the
$200 million value of the portfolio, $60 million was borrowed. The duration of borrowed funds is 0.8. The
expected return on the portfolio is 8% and the cost of borrowed funds is 3%.
The next day, the chief investment officer for the Washington Investment Fund expresses her concern about
the risk of their portfolio, given its leverage. She inquires about the various risk measures for bond portfolios. In
response, Diaz distinguishes between the standard deviation and downside risk measures, making the
following statements:
1. ''Portfolio managers complain that using variance to calculate Sharpe ratios is inappropriate. Since it
considers all returns over the entire distribution, variance and the resulting standard deviation are artificially
inflated, so the resulting Sharpe ratio is artificially deflated. Since it is easily calculated for bond portfolios,
managers feci a more realistic measure of risk is the semi-variance, which measures the distribution of returns
below a given return, such as the mean or a hurdle rate."
2. "A shortcoming of VAR is its inability to predict the size of potential losses in the lower tail of the expected
return distribution. Although it can assign a probability to some maximum loss, it does not predict the actual loss
if the maximum loss is exceeded. If Washington Investment Fund is worried about catastrophic loss, shortfall
risk is a more appropriate measure, because it provides the probability of not meeting a target return."
AA has a corporate client, Shaifer Materials with a €20,000,000 bond outstanding that pays an annual fixed
coupon rate of 9.5% with a 5-year maturity. Castillo believes that euro interest rates may decrease further within
the next year below the coupon rate on the fixed rate bond. Castillo would like Shaifer to issue new debt at a
lower euro interest rate in the future. Castillo has, however, looked into the costs of calling the bonds and has
found that the call premium is quite high and that the investment banking costs of issuing new floating rate debt
would be quite steep. As such he is considering using a swaption to create a synthetic refinancing of the bond
at a lower cost than an actual refinancing of the bond. He states that in order to do so, Shaifer should buy a
payer swaption, which would give them the option to pay a lower floating interest rate if rates drop.
Diaz retrieves current market data for payer and receiver swaptions with a maturity of one year. The terms of
each instrument are provided below:
Payer swaption fixed rate7.90%
Receiver swaption fixed rate7.60%
Current Euribor7.20%
Projected Euribor in one year5.90%
Diaz states that, assuming Castillo is correct, Shaifer can exercise a swaption in one year to effectively call in
their old fixed rate euro debt paying 9.5% and refinance at a floating rate, which would be 7.5% in one year.
Regarding their statements concerning the synthetic refinancing of the Shaifer Materials fixed rate euro debt,
Jacques Lepage, CFA, is a portfolio manager for MontBlanc Securities and holds 4 million shares of AirCon in
client portfolios. Lepage issues periodic research reports on AirCon to both discretionary and nondiscretionary
accounts. In his October investment report, Lepage stated, "In my opinion, AirCon is entering a phase, which
could put it 'in play' as a takeover target. Nonetheless, this possibility appears to be fully reflected in the market
value of the stock."
One month has passed since Lepage's October report and AirCon has just announced the firm's executive
compensation packages, which include stock options (50% of which expire in one year), personal use of
corporate aircraft (which can be used in conjunction with paid vacation days), and a modest base salary that
constitutes a small proportion of the overall package. While he has not asked, he believes that the directors of MontBlanc will find the compensation excessive and sells the entire position immediately after the news.
Unbeknownst to Lepage, three days earlier an announcement was made via Reuters and other financial news
services that AirCon had produced record results that were far beyond expectations. Moreover, the firm has
established a dominant position in a promising new market that is expected to generate above-average firm
growth for the next five years.
A few weeks after selling the AirCon holdings, Lepage bought 2.5 million shares of Spectra Vision over a period
of four days. The typical trading volume of this security is about 1.3 million shares per day, and his purchases
drove the price up 9% over the 4-day period. These trades were designated as appropriate for 13 accounts of
differing sizes, including performance-based accounts, charitable trusts, and private accounts. The shares were
allocated to the accounts on a pro rata basis at the end of each day at the average price for the day.
One of the investment criteria used in evaluating equity holdings is the corporate governance structure of the
issuing company. Because Lepage has dealt with this topic extensively, he has been asked to present a talk of
corporate governance issues to the firm's portfolio managers and analysts at the next monthly meeting. At the
meeting, Lepage makes the following comments:
"When evaluating the corporate governance policies of a company, you should begin by assessing the
responsibilities of the company's board of directors. In general, the board should have the responsibility to set
long-term objectives that are consistent with shareholders' interests. In addition, the board must be responsible
for hiring the CEO and setting his or her compensation package such that the CEO's interests are aligned with
those of the shareholders. In that way the board can spend its time on matters other than monitoring the CEO.
A firm with good corporate governance policies should also have an audit committee made up of independent
board members that are experienced in auditing and related legal matters. The audit committee should have
full access to the firm's financial statements and the ability to question auditors hired by the committee."
According to the CFA Institute Code and Standards, Lepage's ignorance of AirCon's press release to Reuters
three days before he sold shares of the company:
Matrix Corporation is a multidivisional company with operations in energy, telecommunications, and shipping.
Matrix sponsors a traditional defined benefit pension plan. Plan assets are valued at $5.5 billion, while recent
declines in interest rates have caused plan liabilities to balloon to $8.3 billion. Average employee age at Matrix
is 57.5, which is considerably higher than the industry average, and the ratio of active to retired lives is 1.1. Joe
Elliot, Matrix's CFO, has made the following statement about the current state of the pension plan.
"Recent declines in interest rates have caused our pension liabilities to grow faster than ever experienced in our
long history, but I am sure these low rates are temporary. I have looked at the charts and estimated the
probability of higher interest rates at more than 90%. Given the expected improvement in interest rate levels,
plan liabilities will again come back into line with our historical position. Our investment policy will therefore be
to invest plan assets in aggressive equity securities. This investment exposure will bring our plan to an overfunded status, which will allow us to use pension income to bolster our profitability."