John Rawlins is a bond portfolio manager for Waimea Management, a U.S.-based portfolio management firm.
Waimea specializes in the management of equity and fixed income portfolios for large institutional investors
such as pension funds, insurance companies, and endowments. Rawlins uses bond futures contracts for both
hedging and speculative positions. He frequently uses futures contracts for tactical asset allocation because,
relative to cash instruments, futures have lower transactions costs and margin requirements. They also allow
for short positions and longer duration positions not available with cash market instruments. Rawlins has a total
of approximately $750 million of assets under management.
In one of his client portfolios, Rawlins currently holds the following positions:
The dollar duration of the cheapest to deliver bond (CTD) is $10,596.40 and the conversion factor is 1.3698.
In a discussion of this bond hedge, Rawlins confers with John Tejada, his assistant. Tejada states that he has
regressed the corporate bond's yield against the yield for the CTD and has found that the slope coefficient for
this regression is 1.0. He states his results confirm the assumptions made by Rawlins for his hedging
calculations. Rawlins states that had Tejada found a slope coefficient greater than one, the number of futures
contracts needed to hedge a position would decrease (relative to the regression coefficient being equal to one).
In addition to hedging specific bond positions, Rawlins tends to be quite active in individual bond management
by moving in and out of specific issues to take advantage of temporary mispricing. Although the turnover in his
portfolio is sometimes quite high, he believes that by using his gut instincts he can outperform a buy-and-hold
strategy. Tejada on the other hand prefers using statistical software and simulation to help him find undervalued
bond issues. Although Tejada has recently graduated from a prestigious university with a master's degree in
finance, Rawlins has not given Tejada full rein in decision-making because he believes that Tejada's approach
needs further evaluation over a period of both falling and rising interest rates, as well as in different credit
environments.
Rawlins and Tejada are evaluating two individual bonds for purchase. The first bond was issued by Dynacom, a
U.S. telecommunications firm. This bond is denominated in dollars. The second bond was issued by Bergamo
Metals, an Italian based mining and metal fabrication firm. The Bergamo bond is denominated in euros. The
holding period for either bond is three months.
The characteristics of the bonds are as follows:
3-month cash interest rates are 1% in the United States and 2.5% in the European Union. Rawlins and Tejada
will hedge the receipt of euro interest and principal from the Bergamo bond using a forward contract on euros.
Rawlins evaluates these two bonds and decides that over the next three months, he will invest in the Dynacom
bond. He notes that although (he Bergamo bond has a yield advantage of 1% over the next quarter, the euro is
at a three month forward discount of approximately 1.5%. Therefore, he favors the Dynacom bond because the
net return advantage for the Dynacom bond is 0.5% over the next three months.
Tejada does his own analysis and states that, although he agrees with Rawlins that the Dynacom bond has a
yield advantage, he is concerned about the credit quality of the Dynacom bond. Specifically, he has heard
rumors that the chief executive and the chairman of the board at Dynacom are both being investigated by the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for possible manipulation of Dynacom's stock price, just prior to the
exercise of their options in the firm's stock. He believes that the resulting fallout from this alleged incident could
be damaging to Dynacom's bond price.
Tejada analyzes the potential impact on Dynacom's bond price using breakeven analysis. He believes that
news of the incident could increase the yield on Dynacom's bond by 0.75%. Under this scenario, he states that
he would favor the Bergamo bond over the next three months, assuming that the yield on the Bergamo bond
stays constant. Rawlins reviews Tejada's breakeven analysis and states that though he is appreciative of
Tejada's efforts, the analysis relies on an approximation.
Suppose that the original dollar duration for a 100 basis point change in interest rates was $4,901,106 and that
the bond prices remain constant during the year. Based upon the durations one year from today, and assuming
a proportionate investment in each of the three bonds, the amount of cash that will need to be invested to
restore the average dollar duration to the original level is closest to:
Jacques Lepage, CFA, is a portfolio manager for MontBlanc Securities and holds 4 million shares of AirCon in
client portfolios. Lepage issues periodic research reports on AirCon to both discretionary and nondiscretionary
accounts. In his October investment report, Lepage stated, "In my opinion, AirCon is entering a phase, which
could put it 'in play' as a takeover target. Nonetheless, this possibility appears to be fully reflected in the market
value of the stock."
One month has passed since Lepage's October report and AirCon has just announced the firm's executive
compensation packages, which include stock options (50% of which expire in one year), personal use of
corporate aircraft (which can be used in conjunction with paid vacation days), and a modest base salary that
constitutes a small proportion of the overall package. While he has not asked, he believes that the directors of MontBlanc will find the compensation excessive and sells the entire position immediately after the news.
Unbeknownst to Lepage, three days earlier an announcement was made via Reuters and other financial news
services that AirCon had produced record results that were far beyond expectations. Moreover, the firm has
established a dominant position in a promising new market that is expected to generate above-average firm
growth for the next five years.
A few weeks after selling the AirCon holdings, Lepage bought 2.5 million shares of Spectra Vision over a period
of four days. The typical trading volume of this security is about 1.3 million shares per day, and his purchases
drove the price up 9% over the 4-day period. These trades were designated as appropriate for 13 accounts of
differing sizes, including performance-based accounts, charitable trusts, and private accounts. The shares were
allocated to the accounts on a pro rata basis at the end of each day at the average price for the day.
One of the investment criteria used in evaluating equity holdings is the corporate governance structure of the
issuing company. Because Lepage has dealt with this topic extensively, he has been asked to present a talk of
corporate governance issues to the firm's portfolio managers and analysts at the next monthly meeting. At the
meeting, Lepage makes the following comments:
"When evaluating the corporate governance policies of a company, you should begin by assessing the
responsibilities of the company's board of directors. In general, the board should have the responsibility to set
long-term objectives that are consistent with shareholders' interests. In addition, the board must be responsible
for hiring the CEO and setting his or her compensation package such that the CEO's interests are aligned with
those of the shareholders. In that way the board can spend its time on matters other than monitoring the CEO.
A firm with good corporate governance policies should also have an audit committee made up of independent
board members that are experienced in auditing and related legal matters. The audit committee should have
full access to the firm's financial statements and the ability to question auditors hired by the committee."
According to the CFA Institute Code and Standards, Lepage's ignorance of AirCon's press release to Reuters
three days before he sold shares of the company: